Forecasts play a central role in decision-making under uncertainty, but whereas weather forecasts have improved massively over the past half century, macroeconomic forecasts have not. In this online masterclass, Ron Smith will review the functions of forecasts, the methods available, including the use of high dimensional data, and the appropriate responses to the inevitable forecast failures.   

After teaching at Cambridge, Ron Smith came to Birkbeck, University of London in 1976, where he was Professor of Applied Economics from 1985, becoming emeritus in 2023. He taught econometrics, statistics and forecasting. He has also been a visiting Professor at London Business School and the University of Colorado and is the author or editor of 10 books, and published over 200 papers mainly in applied econometrics, defence economics and political economy. He has acted as a consultant to bodies such as Frontier Economics and the UK National Audit Office, and is an Associate Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute. His book Military Economics: The Interaction of Power and Money, Palgrave 2009, was shortlisted for the 2010 Duke of Westminster’s Medal for Military Literature. He was awarded the 2011 Lewis Fry Richardson award for contributions to the scientific study of militarised conflict by the European Consortium of Political Research.  His latest book is Defence Acquistion and Procurement: how (not) to buy weapons, Cambridge University Press, Elements in Defence Economics, 2022. 

Chaired by Donna Leong - SPE Council Member and Chief Economist, Department for Energy Security and Net Zero - the webinar will be streamed live via Zoom.

HOW TO REGISTER

Pre-event registration is required.

Members can register via the SPE notices. If interested in attending as a guest, email office@spe.org.uk